Charizard Sun & Moon Black Star Promo #SM226

Rarity: Promo
Released: 2016
Total graded: 4,037

Check price on eBay Check price on TCGplayer

50/100

Good Bet

0254572

Sell Raw
Thin Margin
Good Bet
Exceptional

$246
Expected Value
5.5×
Profit Multiple
44%
Odds of Profit

How the score is calculated

Profit Multiple →
Odds of Profit	1×	1.5×	2×	3×	5×	8×	12×	20×
100%	55	61	65	72	79	86	92	100
90%	50	56	60	66	74	81	87	95
75%	41	47	52	58	65	72	79	86
60%	33	39	43	50	57	64	70	78
50%	28	34	38	44	52	59	65	73
35%	19	25	30	36	43	50	57	64
20%	11	17	21	28	35	42	48	56
10%	6	12	16	22	30	37	43	51

Sell Raw
Thin Margin
Good Bet
Exceptional

What it cannot know

Grading outcomes are decided solely by the company you send to, not by this model. We cannot guarantee a result: condition is specific to your copy, and we have never seen it. Scores are projected from publicly available population and sales data, and the thresholds between the bands are our own judgement rather than an industry standard.

Grade vs. Raw

Sell it raw

100% chance

$45

Grade it, then sell

Blended average

$246

44%: you make money
0%: you break even
56%: you lose money

Grade population	# of graded	Est. sale price	Profit or loss
PSA 10 5%	186	$4,121	+$3,614
PSA 9 39%	1,587	$245	+$126
PSA 8 27%	1,100	$83	−$20
PSA 7 13%	509	$94	−$10
PSA 6 10%	397	$41	−$58
PSA 5 4%	181	$49	−$51
PSA 4 1%	42	$30	−$68
PSA 2 0%	4	$60	−$41
PSA 1 0%	9	$106	Break-Even

Grade vs. Raw

Estimated Cost

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