Arceus XY Black Star Promos #XY116

Rarity: Promo
Released: 2013
Total graded: 1,021

Check price on eBay Check price on TCGplayer

52/100

Good Bet

0254572

Sell Raw
Thin Margin
Good Bet
Exceptional

$127
Expected Value
3.5×
Profit Multiple
60%
Odds of Profit

How the score is calculated

Profit Multiple →
Odds of Profit	1×	1.5×	2×	3×	5×	8×	12×	20×
100%	55	61	65	72	79	86	92	100
90%	50	56	60	66	74	81	87	95
75%	41	47	52	58	65	72	79	86
60%	33	39	43	50	57	64	70	78
50%	28	34	38	44	52	59	65	73
35%	19	25	30	36	43	50	57	64
20%	11	17	21	28	35	42	48	56
10%	6	12	16	22	30	37	43	51

Sell Raw
Thin Margin
Good Bet
Exceptional

What it cannot know

Grading outcomes are decided solely by the company you send to, not by this model. We cannot guarantee a result: condition is specific to your copy, and we have never seen it. Scores are projected from publicly available population and sales data, and the thresholds between the bands are our own judgement rather than an industry standard.

Grade vs. Raw

Sell it raw

100% chance

$36

Grade it, then sell

Blended average

$127

25%: you make money
34%: you break even
40%: you lose money

Grade population	# of graded	Est. sale price	Profit or loss
PSA 10 2%	19	$3,999	+$3,513
PSA 9 22%	228	$310	+$193
PSA 8 34%	349	$102	Break-Even
PSA 7 25%	251	$45	−$45
PSA 6 8%	85	$21	−$67
PSA 5 5%	47	$50	−$41
PSA 4 2%	17	$6.17	−$80
PSA 3 1%	9	$23	−$65
PSA 1 1%	9	$136	+$36

Grade vs. Raw

Estimated Cost

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